How to Choose: Trend Preference or Flat Preference
2018-10-19  694

 

Depending on the goals and time of holding the position, trend and flat preferences for trading are available to market participants.

Trend Preference - the probability of price reversal from the locked-in range upon return based on the availability of locked-in open positions, against the prevailing volume of which it is profitable for the market maker to quote or maintain the price (Chapter 1.5).

Flat Preference - the probability of price returning back to the locked-in range after going beyond TPSL levels based on the absence / loss (triggering of stop-losses) of a significant imbalance of open positions, against the prevailing volume of which it is profitable for the market maker to quote or maintain the price (Chapter 1.5).

With an increase of a futures liquidity, a probability of strong imbalances in the locked-in ranges decreases, while a probability of an appearance of the gravitation ranges increases.

So if you want to speculate liquid futures contracts every day I recommend "Flat Preference", if you want to try your luck and hold position more than 3 trading sessions I recommend "Trend Preference".

From my Second Edition LRA book you will learn how to use preferences (Chapter 2.4).

Tom's Note

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  • QUESTION: Hi Tom, to find out the direction and degree of open position imbalance, can't we analyze the Bid/Ask delta and determine that if the Bid volume is much higher than the Ask volume, then that would mean that there was selling pressure and that the Market Maker has accumulated Buy orders?
  • ANSWER: Hi, Bid/Ask delta shows all TRADED orders but only current OPEN positions can be used to predict the future behavior of prices. Only MarketMaker's Bid/Ask delta shows the real open positions and we have no this data access and can only try to find out the direction and degree of open position imbalance by the chart. Regular Bid/Ask delta includes closed positions and the positions that will be closed when you try to use the data like Bid/Ask delta so using the data like Bid/Ask delta is "Lucky" trading
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  • ANSWER: No. The LRA time-frame selected for the construction of charts should include the current TPSL levels and the previous trading days at the same time, with a likely significant volume of locked/break-even open positions that influence the formation of prices by the market maker (Example: 1 Hour, 2 Hour, 30 Minute). Remember: the further the forecast extends in time, the less it should be trusted. And the volume of open positions on a small timeframe can not affect the daily imbalance of positions so your intraday orders will be "Lucky".
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  • ANSWER: Very low OI http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/equity-index/us-index/bitcoin_quotes_volume_voi.html tells us that there is no interest for market makers. Moreover the CME futures price will never be the basis of the Bitcoin price as the Bitcoin price is quoted by other exchanges.
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  • QUESTION: Hi Tom , what is the biggest drawdown of the deposit you had on this method of analysis?
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